The economies of the UK, the US, Spain, the Netherlands and China stand to benefit from global corporate tax proposals being discussed by international leaders at this weekend’s G7 summit in Cornwall.
Using a complex methodology, including data on productivity, imports and investment to estimate the likely impact of the minimum 15% tax rate, trade analysts at Euler Hermes identified Spain, Poland, China and the Netherlands as clear winners; the US, the UK, Russia and Italy as relative winners; and Ireland, Brazil and Hungary among the clear losers from the deal.
“Though the eventual implementation of this agreement will take a long time because of ratification issues, the initiative represents a unique moment of global fiscal convergence,” the report states. “In the long run, the global minimum tax rate for MNEs could impact economies’ potential growth via different channels.”
These include the capital repatriation or productivity growth channels, terms of trade, public debt, public investment and corporate tax revenue of redistribution.
The G7 initiative with set global impact aims to reverse the long term decline in the statutory corporate tax rate. It is a response to the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has caused an increase in global public debt. The birth of a global minimum corporate tax aims to prevent the phenomenon known as base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS).
The governments of the world will get on the starting block when a larger group of G20 meets to endorse the initiative of the G7. The G7 initiative will cause global sprint to start a major negotiation process, and the potential agreement is expected to be signed in October 2021 during the next G20.
The G7 is made up of seven countries that are among the world’s most important economies. These are France, Japan, Germany, the United States, Great Britain, Italy and Canada.